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Στοχαστική τεχνικοοικονομική αξιολόγηση επενδύσεων στην αιολική ενέργεια με προσομοίωση Mode Carlo (Master thesis)

Μακρή, Αθανασία/ Makri, Athanasia

The present master's thesis is divided into two parts. The first part (Chapters 1 & 2) approaches the historical and bibliographical overview of wind energy and wind turbines, providing definitions for certain economic parameters and technical aspects. Part B (Chapters 3 & 4) focuses on explaining the template created to assist investors in each upcoming investment related to wind turbines. In the first chapter, an approach is made to the history of renewable energy sources by referencing various definitions for renewable and non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, the planetary energy situation, the petroleum crisis, and the institutional framework governing wind energy in Europe, specifically in Greece, are discussed. Also it refers to Mode Carlo simulation. The second chapter provides a literature review on wind energy and wind turbines, presenting technical characteristics of wind turbines, their various categories, construction materials, advantages, disadvantages, and construction and installation costs. The third chapter addresses the technical aspect, where a template was created through a causal approach and the use of Excel. This template summarizes the generated energy by placing any power curve of any wind turbine. The same chapter discusses the economic aspect and the creation of it with the help of Monte Carlo simulation and the evaluation of the investment through NPV, IRR, WACC methods. Additionally, expenses and revenues of wind parks are calculated based on energy, and using Monte Carlo, we emphasize the points that are variable to obtain a result as close to reality as possible. The third chapter presents the conclusions of the thesis. Conclusions vary for each wind turbine and investment case, presented in the fifth chapter of the thesis. However, the general conclusion is that the template created for various values gets closer to reality with more iterations. Thus, the investor will determine whether it is worth investing in this project and make adjustments to bring the investment as close as possible to their profit expectations.